Insights
By: Bryn Hatty
South African Q1 2025 Investment Outlook
The year commenced with a series of significant events transpiring. Both on the domestic front, as well as what came from abroad seemed to kick off once inauguration of US President Trump took place. As a deluge of tariffs and tariff proposals were announced interlinked with a step change in the US foreign policy agenda, South Africa found itself placed squarely in President Trump’s sights. The effect of the Trump administration “flooding the zone”, was increased volatility of global, but predominantly US, asset prices – as market participants attempted to price the policy implications on US economic growth, inflation, and company profitability. Eventually leading to a decline in the broad US dollar index, and a rally in the price of gold (deemed to be a haven asset during periods of heightened geopolitical risk), this saw the rand strengthening against the US dollar, and a rally in the share prices of JSE listed gold mining companies pulling the broader South African Equity market higher.
On the local front, after legislation such as the NHI, BELA, and the Expropriation Bill were signed by the President, the GNU underwent its first real test when the National Budget, first due to be tabled on 19th February, was postponed to the 12th of March due to disagreement amongst GNU members. In this regard, events early in the month of April have been fluent and meaningful. We spend time offering our views on this later in this letter.
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